A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
